I’ve had a few questions recently geared around why I didn’t start with American football or baseball when it comes to professional sports betting as they are “easier” to cap (that’s been proved by the way)
My answer is 2 fold.
1.) I’m NOT in sports betting for the short run.
In the UK sports betting is tax free.
Let me say that again. In the UK my profits from betting on sports are 100% TAX FREE!!
That’s a great incentive versus my other business and investing earnings. This means that regardless of how much I can potentially make, I will pay 0% Tax on earnings.
Now I know the US is different but that’s my 1st reason. In the US I’m not sure the exact rates but earning through sports betting is more fun and exciting than if you are just earning through a job… Trust me I once earned the same in a full time job as I did betting…. Needless to say I left that job pretty sharpish.
I don’t need to make a quick profit, I’d rather build it correctly from the start, build a following the right way and guarantee profits, rather than just try to make a quick buck for myself or off anyone else selling tips or any of that BS.
Reason 2 will explain the answer in more depth as to why I started with Hockey and the NHL.
2.) Hockey (NHL) is closer to LUCK on the sporting skill luck continuum.
First let me say that I don’t think NHL is any easier than any other sports when I say this. My personal belief is that it is the most difficult sport on the planet.
WTF are you about?
Let me explain.
There’s a book called the success equation.
It’s a book about “untangling luck and skill in sports betting and investing”…. I mean can I get a book more targeted to me?
So obviously I picked this up and absorbed everything.
One of the most interesting elements was something I had seen researched about a year earlier, it’s called the skill luck continuum.
As you can see at the pure luck end of the continuum you have roulette, slots (and not far off that you have stocks). Moving up you can see the first professional sport you see is my dear hockey, more specifically the NHL.
One of the key features on the skill luck continuum is the following: “If you cannot lose ON PURPOSE then the game is very highly related to luck.” – Let’s take roulette your odds are the same whether you’ve been “playing” for 20 years or 1 minute. – You cannot lose on purpose”
Oh that’s the same in the stock market by the way!
Moving up further we see basketball is the closest to pure skill and of course an event such as chess is as close to 100% skill as you can get.
There’s a good video below that explains everything.
My decision still probably doesn’t make sense right?
But you have to remember where I come from, I come from an investing and business background. I’m NOT in sports betting for a quick buck, I honestly do not need it and its not even my #1 priority as of writing this post.
It is something I want to build and grow into a 7 figure business both personal betting and selling theories and predictive software. *I’m currently in talks with a developer to build me something like this… But we are months away from that at the moment of writing.
So anyway – Why am I targeting a sport that has the MOST variance?
Because, if I can continually earn 50+ units per season on a sport that has the highest variance (betting a maximum of 2 units per event) – Don’t you think I can earn 50+ units across sports that have EVEN LESS variance? It will be even easier.
Start with the hardest thing first will result in profits becoming EASIER and not more difficult.
That is the reason.
That is the single reason why I started with ice hockey and the NHL and why we cracked this first before moving onto any other sports.
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Cheers for reading,