If you know me then you’ll know I’m all about full confidence in a bet of anything above 1 unit. My bankroll management is extremely tight, so when I make these 10 unit cricket bets please understand I’m not some solo as this is a lot of money to win/lose.
On 21st and 22nd of March I placed 2 bets about 24 hours apart, these were;
- 5 Units @ +180.
- 5 Units @ +400.
The reason why the second price was so low is explained simply, the only way this bet was ever going to lose if it a “black swan” event happened. This is where something that variance doesn’t even cover, you generally get a black swan event about once a year in sports. For example if a NHL team won by 11 goals or something crazy like that. It also relates to negative outcomes and it’s not common enough to affect any professional gamblers that use correct bankroll management, only the YOLOs get affected.
Anyway, in this case we have 5 units on at +180 and 5 units at +400 for the official play.
Currently the price is +250 coming down from +400 to day before.
For anyone that doesn’t know the basic strategy around the remainder of this play is going to be to hold out until just before “day 5” (cricket games have 5 days.) After day 1 we were in terrible shape (so I decided to put another 5 units on….)
Just understand betting companies.
They under-estimate key areas.
For example we could make about 10 units in the next 24 hours, you want to know how?
- Check image below.
- Place 20 units on “the draw” outcome at +250.
- Wait 24 hours.
- Price will go down to around +150.
- Manual cash out (place 10-25 units on NZ to win)
- Either way profit 10 units.
I’m not going to do this because I’m already 10 units deep in this play which is a lot of money but that’s essentially the strategy moving forward.
We’re going to be reviewing the play within 24 hours time and making a decision either
Currently I’m still confident in the play for 24 hours and we MAY have to cash-out for a small profit instead of risk moving into day 4 and 5 in 24 hours time, but until then we will be fine.
Make sure you check the twitter in 24 hours time, info will be important.
You can read about the black swan event here that “might” make us only break even instead of what should have been an easy 18 units profit….