If you are new to betting on soccer, click here to read our previous article that explains the basics. For those of you that want to make better and more accurate soccer bets, this is the article for you.
Soccer betting is unlike any other sport. The lines are different and there are almost too many ways to bet on it.
Continue reading for soccer betting advice and a few outlined strategies.
Soccer Is Random
Soccer matches have very low scoring games. A match can be settled by a slight deflection or just by a sweet strike of the ball. These single moments can make or break soccer predictions.
Soccer matches have far more luck and randomness than other sports like ice hockey and basketball. Sometimes it’ll work in your
Although it may be difficult to accommodate luck into soccer betting advice, it can still be accounted for in the results. Just remember that short-term success may not be totally down to
Read on to find out how you can make profitable soccer predictions.
How To Select A Soccer Bet
Take a look at this screenshot for an average Premier League match:
These are just some of the ‘main’ bets available, not to mention the specials and other markets available.
Sportsbooks, especially in Europe, have so many markets to bet on in soccer that people can often try and predict too much.
TV adverts don’t help when they tell you to bet on the number of corners in the match or the total number of cards issued. They try and get sports bettors to stay away from a result and focus on prop bets that require little to no skill in predicting.
So, instead of trying to predict everything, focus on one aspect of the game. Sportsbooks will have to manage soccer betting lines for all of their markets, meaning there is room to find value.
Select the league, then select the team and finally select the market
The more people betting on the competition, the more difficult it is to be profitable. This is because sportsbooks sharpen their odds based on how much action they receive. Popular competitions get the most action, resulting in more information for the sportsbooks.
Use Previous Soccer Matches
Once you know what you are going to bet on, you should look at results from previous matches. This is the best way to determine if your bets will go the way you expect them to in the future.
Common data points to look for include recent form, how they have historically performed against their opponents and their record against the spread.
For more traditional markets like soccer moneyline bets or total goals scored, these will go a long way. However, for more niche markets, other data points will be need.
The more information you can gather, the more accurate your predictions will be.
For example, soccer analytics are now starting to measure the number of expected goals (xG). Instead of looking at a result based on goals scored, expected goals measure the quality of chances created and where a player is more likely than not to score.
With this in mind, expected goals have only just become an important metric. Before Sander Itjsma discussed them back in 2011, they weren’t even used in soccer.
This shows that new data can be created using other pieces of information, which may lead to new profitable ways to bet on soccer matches.
Soccer Predictions And Soccer Odds
Remember, your soccer bets don’t have to always be right to be profitable. You just have to be more right than wrong and more accurate than the sportsbook.
Once you have a method to make your soccer predictions, you need to convert them into probabilities and compare them against the odds offered by the sportsbooks.
If you estimate that the probability of a match is higher than what the sportsbooks think, you have found an edge.
The bigger your edge, the more of your bankroll you can wager per bet. However, you will know from our bankroll management post that you should never stake more than 2% of your bankroll per play.
Measuring your ROI can then help gauge how successful your betting strategy is.
However, it doesn’t stop here.
Regardless if you make a profit or not, you need to be constantly refining and maintaining it to ensure long-term success.
Soccer Closing Lines
This is another way to measure how successful your soccer betting strategy is.
Betting lines are made based on what sportsbooks believe best represents the value of both teams playing. They are always subject to change based on new information.
Betting lines will continue to change up until the match starts. The final betting line is known as the closing line.
Analysing your bets through closing odds comparisons can highlight how often you find value.
The more value you find from your bets, the more profit you’ll make long-term.
Final Soccer Betting Advice
Don’t underestimate how difficult it is to successfully predict the outcome of soccer matches. The above steps will help you make better decisions and your bets more accurate.
However, don’t forget that you need to be clear on what you’re betting on and how you are going to make a profit from it.
Looking at historical data from the results of previous matches will help you build strategies and identify patterns to make you more confident in your bets.
Data is imperative when it comes to soccer predictions, this will then help build a betting model that can be used to test your predictions and see if they make a profit.
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