Rugby Union is a type of sport that doesn’t really get a lot of attention in the sports betting community and I’m not 100% sure why.
Unlike American football, the variance in rugby is a lot lower.
Although totals are usually very similar in the 40-60 points range, the game lasts for 80 minutes without stoppages and the teams are 15 per side.
This all means it’s actually a lot easier to build out and test theories for rugby than NFL or College Football.
As a result, about a year ago, we started our back-testing and theory creation process.
This resulted in 2 really strong theories that consistently make us over 30 units a season from Rugby betting. It’s really that simple.
A number of our theories have a high emphasis on the weather before and during the game.
Generally, we’ve seen that the UNDER hits about 60% of the time when there is medium to heavy rain both before and during the event.
This is quite an obvious theory but one that people do not tend to build out and test.
We took the time to back-test this theory and it’s been a great decision.
In 2017 we are on pace to hit 50+ units in profit from rugby. That’s approximately $10,000+ in profit through 1 sport.
What Is Rugby Union?
Rugby union is a popular game played (outside of the US). Although this is starting to come to the American market, they still aren’t that good when you take a look at the WRU rankings. The sport is one of the largest in Europe & is my personal national sport… So I’ve grown up watching the game, which has started becoming a very profitable endeavour in the past few years.
Our Rugby Strategies
As you’ve likely come to expect, we have a number of data-driven strategies mixed with gut feeling, a decade of experience and “common sense” which is something I think more sports bettors need. We have a few core markets we look to target when it comes to rugby union betting, the largest of these is the total line and 1st half total.
We Love Unders
Because unders are some of the easiest ways to make a sizeable amount of money with very low risk. Especially in rugby – Here’s why – Rugby Union requires players to pass backward. You can view the full rules here if you are really interested. But the short version is when conditions are poor it is proportionally more difficult to score points. This is something that sportsbooks do not look into enough, which helps us to a massive degree as this is the single easiest way to make a lot of money.
Alongside looking at the weather closely before a game starts we look into the stats of the two teams. The most important elements being;
- Previous games between the two teams
- Previous game of both teams
- The over/under line.
All of this data is then analysed to give us a “Play or no play” result. This is very similar to how our famous cricket picks are created which are extremely profitable by simply looking into weather patterns earlier than the bookies.
Similar to American Football or pretty much any American sport, we like to play a lot on the spread. This, of course, is a plus or minus figure that shows how likely a team is to win based on the data a sportsbook has. The spread for rugby is usually very poor, unlike the NFL bookies don’t have the budget (or desire) to spend millions on correctly analysing each and every rugby game, simply because not enough people bet on it. This is of course great news for us.
The spreads are usually very home-heavy in rugby union. For example, the below shows the rugby union betting odds for this week’s games (in a league called the Super 15). As you can see there’s only 1 team that’s a home dog, the rest are all favourites. This is generally the stats you see across all league and all games.
Lines from -17 to -5 for home teams.
Playing both for and against the spread in rugby matches can lead to some very profitable betting, although as with everything you need to understand the sport, sports psychology and look at a lot of data before going ahead, but we’ve been doing this for years and have tons of data to help us make these educated plays.
Key Elements To Remember
Ghost betting runs on a few core principles that we spread throughout everything we do from high level investing, baseball, hockey and any sport we decide to get into in the future. All clients are required to learn about bankroll management before starting and should be educated on the ins and outs of gambling and sports betting in general.
Once you have correct bankroll management in place, you give yourself a massive advantage over the bookies & other sports bettors at that.
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