The English Premier League, also known as the EPL, is the most popular soccer league in the world. Consequently, this makes it the most popular soccer league to bet on.
This guide will explain how to bet on the Premier League as well as run through a few profitable soccer betting systems.
Let’s start with some factors to take into consideration.
Premier League Hype
For this factor, it’s important to understand that soccer is still a business. It generates a lot of media coverage, which can translate to hype.
Hype in sport plays a large role in the way people perceive how a certain match is going to go. For example, if Manchester City beat Chelsea 6-0, there’s going to be a lot of hype around their chances of winning the league, not to mention the result of their next match!
However, you need to be careful when considering the hype around in-form teams in the Premier League.
Take Fulham and Cardiff City in the current 2018/19 season for example. Prior. Here are just some examples of quotes in the media.
Here are some widely-regarded thoughts about Fulham summed up by the BBC:
And here’s some thoughts about Cardiff City:
“I think Cardiff will go down, maybe with a record low points tally”
— BBC 5 Live Sport (@5liveSport) August 12, 2018
Knowing this, at the time of writing, here is a snapshot of the bottom of the current Premier League table:
When it comes to hype in the Premier League, don’t just follow it blindly. Do your own research and you’ll find lots of value in markets where many people don’t.
But hype goes beyond the results on the pitch. It can also be generated by external events, such as a new transfer signing.
During the transfer windows, a lot of speculation surrounds Premier League teams on who they are going to sign. For example, following Loris Karius’ high-profile errors in the Champions League Final back last summer, Liverpool were linked with goalkeeper after goalkeeper after goalkeeper.
In July 2018, Liverpool broke the then-world record for a ‘keeper by splashing out on Alisson.
It seemed like they had finally plugged the hole that had prevented them from winning major honors.
Shortly after, at +400, Liverpool were installed as pre-season second favorites to win the Premier League behind Champions Manchester City.
Form In The Premier League
Everyone in the soccer world rooted for Leicester City on their way to winning the Premier League in 2015/16. In the process, they overcame preseason odds of +500,000! It was even considered more likely that Elvis Presley would be found alive and well!
In fact, Paddy Power even released this image showing how unlikely they considered Leicester’s title chances:
However, the following season saw them finish in 12th and they have remained in mid-table since.
Premier League team form is temporary. Bad form may last 1 week, 1 month or even 1 season but teams will, eventually, get back to the levels they usually ‘belong at’.
So, translating this into a soccer betting system, while form is a factor to take into account when making a bet, it’s not the be-all and end-all.
Soccer can be notoriously random so don’t use it as the sole reason for making bets. Develop form into other theories, such as:
- How they perform at home or away from home;
- How often their opponents take the lead;
- How their opponents react to being a goal down.
The bottom line is that form doesn’t tell the whole story. Go into further detail when studying the results of recent games and you will be much more profitable in the long run.
Psychology In The Premier League
Sir Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho, Arsene Wenger… these are the most successful managers in the Premier League era.
What do they all have in common? They all have Premier League winner’s medals. They all know how to deal with the pressure.
Why do teams hanging around the relegation zone hire Sam Allardyce when things get tough? Because he knows how to keep them up. He knows how to deal with the pressure.
While this can add to the hype factor we discussed earlier, their experience feeds into the players so when it counts, they are better equipped.
For those familiar with soccer you may remember this:
Both Newcastle and Liverpool finished second to Ferguson’s Manchester United the season in which these speeches were made.
Experience and strong leadership are required to keeping a cool head in the crucial moments.
While these are some of the most obvious examples, the point remains that if you can detect clear psychological edges and frailties, you should use them as part of your Premier League betting system.
Just be aware that there will be some factors that prove too difficult to measure accurately.
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Premier League Betting Tips
So now we have covered these important factors, here are a couple of strategies to look into.
Just for reference, the most popular of Premier League bets are:
- 1X2 Match Result: Home win, Away win or Draw
- Total Goals: Over or under a specified number of goals
- Asian Handicap: Selecting the winner with each team carrying a goal handicap
For more ways to bet on soccer matches, click here to read our comprehensive guide.
Here at Ghost Betting Tips, we always keep these 3 rules in mind when making our bets:
Research is key to betting on the Premier League.
The more knowledge of the game you have, the more money you’ll make.
But let’s be clear…
The Premier League is one of the most difficult competitions to beat the bookmakers.
This isn’t just in soccer but across all sports.
The odds on soccer matches are the most accurate around due to the sheer popularity of the competition.
The amount of money wagered on a Premier League weekend reflects thousands, if not millions, of opinions.
The more money that goes down, the more accurate the odds will be based on those opinions.
To start creating a profitable Premier League betting system, you need to use lots of data and statistics to back up any theories you may have.
Here are two examples to use as a benchmark but don’t jump the gun and assume that they will guarantee you results.
Premier League Home Advantage
The first place to start when coming up with a soccer betting strategy is how often a team wins at home.
For example, in the 2017/18 season, there were 173 home wins compared to only 108 away wins. This represents a 45.53% win percentage when a team is at home compared to a 28.42% win percentage when a team is away.
|TEAM||NUMBER OF HOME WINS||WIN %|
This can be broken down further by looking at the individual teams:
|TEAM||NUMBER OF HOME WINS||WIN %|
Looking at this table, Manchester City has the highest win percentage so it would make sense to bet on them at home.
While this may be the case, there will be little value to be found as sportsbooks will recognise their ability to win at home, thus reducing the odds.
It might be better off looking at a team like Everton.
While their home win percentage is just over 50%, they historically finish the season around the 8th position mark, meaning they may have an above-average record against teams around or below them.
Of course, without further research, this claim cannot be justified but it’s the kind of question that could lead to discovering value.
Conversely, here’s the win percentage of teams away from home in the 2017/18 Premier League season:
|TEAM||NUMBER OF AWAY WINS||WIN %|
For example, there may be great value to bet on the home team that plays against Arsenal. Even though they have an extremely high win percentage at home, their away record is poor.
Arsenal will be considered favorites for most of their matches but in terms of pure value, it makes sense to back their opponents.
Premier League Over 2.5 Goals
Another popular bet in the Premier League is betting on whether or not a game will have over or under 2.5 goals.
In terms of the number of goals scored, home teams scored an average of 1.53 goals per game compared to just the 1.15 goals scored per game for away sides.
|TEAM||AVERAGE NUMBER OF GOALS SCORED|
This would suggest that home teams have a +0.38 goal advantage over away teams.
It translates to a 0.76 goal swing between an average Premier League team playing at home and an average Premier League team playing away.
Here is a summary of each Premier League team’s home and away goal difference from the 2017/18 season:
|TEAM||NUMBER OF HOME GOALS||NUMBER OF AWAY GOALS|
It can be converted into the following table to show the difference between the number of home goals per game compared to the number of away goals per game.
|TEAM||HOME GOALS PER GAME||AWAY GOALS PER GAME||DIFFERENCE|
So, for example, using this table and depending on the opponents, it would make sense to look at betting on under 2.5 goals if Brighton is away from home.
However, in terms of value, it may be better to bet on the over.
Looking back at their win percentage away from home, you can see it’s just over 10%.
If you were to combine this with the average number of goals they concede away from home, as well as the average number of goals the home team score, you may find more value from this bet compared to than just taking the under.
Of course, some further backtesting is needed before this can be used as part of a betting strategy.
But that’s the power of statistics.
What may seem outrageous at face value may actually turn out to be profitable.