The English Premier League, also known as the EPL, is the most popular soccer league in the world. Consequently, this makes it the most popular soccer league to bet on.
This guide will explain how to bet on the Premier League as well as run through a few profitable soccer betting systems.
Just for reference, the most popular of Premier League bets are:
- 1X2 Match Result: Home win, Away win or Draw
- Total Goals: Over or under a specified number of goals
- Asian Handicap: Selecting the winner with each team carrying a goal handicap
For more ways to bet on soccer matches, click here to read our comprehensive guide.
Premier League Betting Tips
There are certain rules to follow to ensure you have the best chance of making a profit from your bets, such as:
- Focus on a single market
- Only bet when there is value
- Record all of your bets and the results
Click here for more general soccer betting advice but for the Premier League specifically, continue reading.
Research is key to betting on the Premier League. The more knowledge of the game you have, the more money you’ll make.
But let’s be clear: the Premier League is one of the most difficult competitions to beat the sportsbooks. This isn’t just in soccer but across all sports.
The odds on soccer matches are the most accurate around due to the sheer popularity of the competition.
The amount of money wagered on a Premier League weekend reflects thousands, if not millions, of opinions. The more money that goes down, the more accurate the odds will be based on those opinions.
To start creating a profitable Premier League betting system, you need to use lots of data and statistics to back up any theories you may have. Here are two examples to use as a benchmark but don’t jump the gun and assume that they will guarantee you results.
Premier League Home Advantage
The first place to start when coming up with a soccer betting strategy is how often a team wins at home.
For example, in the 2017/18 season, there were 173 home wins compared to only 108 away wins. This represents a 45.53% win percentage when a team is at home compared to a 28.42% win percentage when a team is away.
|Team||Number of Wins||Win %|
This can be broken down further by looking at the individual teams:
|Team||Number of Home Wins||Home Win %|
Looking at this table, Manchester City has the highest win percentage so it would make sense to bet on them at home.
While this may be the case, there will be little value to be found as sportsbooks will recognise their ability to win at home, thus reducing the odds.
It might be better off looking at a team like Everton. While their home win percentage is just over 50%, they historically finish the season around the 8th position mark. meaning they may have an above-average record against teams around or below them.
Of course, without further research, this claim cannot be justified but it’s the kind of question that could lead to discovering value.
Conversely, here’s the win percentage of teams away from home in the 2017/18 Premier League season:
|Team||Number of Away Wins||Away Win %|
For example, there may be great value to bet on the home team that plays against Arsenal. Even though they have an extremely high win percentage at home, their away record is poor.
Arsenal will be considered favorites for most of their matches but in terms of pure value, it makes sense to back their opponents.
Premier League Over 2.5 Goals
Another popular bet in the Premier League is betting on whether or not a game will have over or under 2.5 goals.
In terms of the number of goals scored, home teams scored an average of 1.53 goals per game compared to just the 1.15 goals scored per game for away sides.
|Team||Average Number of Goals Scored|
This would suggest that home teams have a +0.38 goal advantage over away teams. It translates to a 0.76 goal swing between an average Premier League team playing at home and an average Premier League team playing away.
Here is a summary of each Premier League team’s home and away goal difference from the 2017/18 season:
|Team||Number of Home Goals||Number of Away Goals|
It can be converted into the following table to show the difference between the number of home goals per game compared to the number of away goals per game.
|Team||Home Goals Per Game||Away Goals Per Game||Difference|
So, for example, using this table and depending on the opponents, it would make sense to look at betting on under 2.5 goals if Brighton is away from home.
However, in terms of value, it may be better to bet on the over.
Looking back at their win percentage away from home, you can see it’s just over 10%. If you were to combine this with the average number of goals they concede away from home, as well as the average number of goals the home team score, you may find more value from this bet compared to than just taking the under.
Of course, some further backtesting is needed before this can be used as part of a betting strategy.
But that’s the power of statistics. What may seem outrageous at face value may actually turn out to be profitable.
Remember, you don’t need to be right with every bet. You just need to be more right than wrong and find value in the markets.
These were just two data points that are worth looking into when creating a Premier League betting strategy.
Combine them with other statistics and compare them to previous seasons to give yourself a clearer idea about what’s going on.
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