Premier League Betting Systems – Ghost Betting Tips

Premier League Betting Systems - Ghost Betting Tips

The English Premier League, also known as the EPL, is the most popular soccer league in the world. Consequently, this makes it the most popular soccer league to bet on.

This guide will explain how to bet on the Premier League as well as run through a few profitable soccer betting systems.

Just for reference, the most popular of Premier League bets are:

  • 1X2 Match Result: Home win, Away win or Draw
  • Total Goals: Over or under a specified number of goals
  • Asian Handicap: Selecting the winner with each team carrying a goal handicap

For more ways to bet on soccer matches, click here to read our comprehensive guide.

Premier League Betting Tips

There are certain rules to follow to ensure you have the best chance of making a profit from your bets, such as:

  • Focus on a single market
  • Only bet when there is value
  • Record all of your bets and the results

Click here for more general soccer betting advice but for the Premier League specifically, continue reading.

Research is key to betting on the Premier League. The more knowledge of the game you have, the more money you’ll make.

But let’s be clear: the Premier League is one of the most difficult competitions to beat the sportsbooks. This isn’t just in soccer but across all sports.

The odds on soccer matches are the most accurate around due to the sheer popularity of the competition.

The amount of money wagered on a Premier League weekend reflects thousands, if not millions, of opinions. The more money that goes down, the more accurate the odds will be based on those opinions.

To start creating a profitable Premier League betting system, you need to use lots of data and statistics to back up any theories you may have. Here are two examples to use as a benchmark but don’t jump the gun and assume that they will guarantee you results.

Premier League Home Advantage

The first place to start when coming up with a soccer betting strategy is how often a team wins at home.

For example, in the 2017/18 season, there were 173 home wins compared to only 108 away wins. This represents a 45.53% win percentage when a team is at home compared to a 28.42% win percentage when a team is away.

Team Number of Wins Win %
Home 173 45.53
Away 108 28.42

This can be broken down further by looking at the individual teams:

Team Number of Home Wins Home Win %
Arsenal 15 78.95
Bournemouth 7 36.84
Brighton 7 36.84
Burnley 7 36.84
Chelsea 11 57.89
Crystal Palace 7 36.84
Everton 10 52.63
Huddersfield 6 31.58
Leicester 7 36.84
Liverpool 12 63.16
Manchester City 16 84.21
Manchester United 15 78.95
Newcastle 8 42.11
Southampton 4 21.05
Stoke 5 26.32
Swansea 6 31.58
Tottenham 13 68.42
Watford 7 36.84
West Brom 3 15.79
West Ham 7 36.84

Looking at this table, Manchester City has the highest win percentage so it would make sense to bet on them at home.

While this may be the case, there will be little value to be found as sportsbooks will recognise their ability to win at home, thus reducing the odds.

It might be better off looking at a team like Everton. While their home win percentage is just over 50%, they historically finish the season around the 8th position mark. meaning they may have an above-average record against teams around or below them.

Of course, without further research, this claim cannot be justified but it’s the kind of question that could lead to discovering value.

Conversely, here’s the win percentage of teams away from home in the 2017/18 Premier League season:

Team Number of Away Wins Away Win %
Arsenal 4 21.05
Bournemouth 4 21.05
Brighton 2 10.53
Burnley 7 36.84
Chelsea 10 52.63
Crystal Palace 4 21.05
Everton 3 15.79
Huddersfield 3 15.79
Leicester 5 26.32
Liverpool 9 47.39
Manchester City 16 84.21
Manchester United 10 52.63
Newcastle 4 21.05
Southampton 3 15.79
Stoke 2 10.53
Swansea 2 10.53
Tottenham 10 52.63
Watford 4 21.05
West Brom 3 15.79
West Ham 3 15.79

For example, there may be great value to bet on the home team that plays against Arsenal. Even though they have an extremely high win percentage at home, their away record is poor.

Arsenal will be considered favorites for most of their matches but in terms of pure value, it makes sense to back their opponents.

Premier League Over 2.5 Goals

Another popular bet in the Premier League is betting on whether or not a game will have over or under 2.5 goals.

In terms of the number of goals scored, home teams scored an average of 1.53 goals per game compared to just the 1.15 goals scored per game for away sides.

Team Average Number of Goals Scored
Home 1.53
Away 1.15

This would suggest that home teams have a +0.38 goal advantage over away teams. It translates to a 0.76 goal swing between an average Premier League team playing at home and an average Premier League team playing away.

Here is a summary of each Premier League team’s home and away goal difference from the 2017/18 season:

Team Number of Home Goals Number of Away Goals
Arsenal 54 20
Bournemouth 26 19
Brighton 24 10
Burnley 16 20
Chelsea 30 32
Crystal Palace 29 16
Everton 28 19
Huddersfield 16 12
Leicester 25 31
Liverpool 45 39
Manchester City 61 45
Manchester United 38 30
Newcastle 21 18
Southampton 20 17
Stoke 20 15
Swansea 19 11
Tottenham 40 34
Watford 27 17
West Brom 21 10
West Ham 24 24

It can be converted into the following table to show the difference between the number of home goals per game compared to the number of away goals per game.

Team Home Goals Per Game Away Goals Per Game Difference
Arsenal 2.84 1.05 +1.79
Bournemouth 1.37 1.00 +0.37
Brighton 1.26 0.53 +0.73
Burnley 0.84 1.05 -0.21
Chelsea 1.58 1.68 -0.10
Crystal Palace 1.53 0.84 +0.69
Everton 1.47 1.00 +0.47
Huddersfield 0.84 0.63 +0.21
Leicester 1.32 1.63 -0.31
Liverpool 2.37 2.05 +0.32
Manchester City 3.21 2.37 +0.84
Manchester United 2.00 1.58 +0.42
Newcastle 1.11 0.95 +0.16
Southampton 1.05 0.89 +0.16
Stoke 1.05 0.79 +0.26
Swansea 1.00 0.58 +0.42
Tottenham 2.11 1.80 +0.31
Watford 1.42 0.89 +0.53
West Brom 1.11 0.53 +0.58
West Ham 1.26 1.26 +0.00

So, for example, using this table and depending on the opponents, it would make sense to look at betting on under 2.5 goals if Brighton is away from home.

However, in terms of value, it may be better to bet on the over.

Looking back at their win percentage away from home, you can see it’s just over 10%. If you were to combine this with the average number of goals they concede away from home, as well as the average number of goals the home team score, you may find more value from this bet compared to than just taking the under.

Of course, some further backtesting is needed before this can be used as part of a betting strategy.

But that’s the power of statistics. What may seem outrageous at face value may actually turn out to be profitable.

Remember, you don’t need to be right with every bet. You just need to be more right than wrong and find value in the markets.

Summary

These were just two data points that are worth looking into when creating a Premier League betting strategy.

Combine them with other statistics and compare them to previous seasons to give yourself a clearer idea about what’s going on.

Sign Up

Sign up to our soccer plays below and you’ll be notified when any bets go live via email. We also have a paid service, which you can find here for access to premium plays.

Follow us on Twitter for even more in-play action and opinions.

Leave a Reply

Close Menu

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close