Premier League Winners
The title race this year is going to be between Manchester City and Liverpool.
If you are going to bet on one of them, we would choose Liverpool.
The reason for this is that the bookies apply heavy margins on future markets, like betting on who is going to win the Premier League.
The margin is the highest for the best teams.
So the odds you’re able to bet on for Man City is far worse than the odds you can get for Liverpool compared to the true odds.
Regardless, make sure you shop around to find the best possible odds to bet on.
The stats guys like Statsbomb are saying that Liverpool overperformed their underlying metrics last year and should expect to take less points this year.
However, our view is that this fails to acknowledge the general improvement in Liverpool’s team and players throughout the season culminating with winning the Champions League.
This season Fabinho is fully integrated into the team.
Naby Keita started to look great during the run in, before he got unlucky with an injury.
And Divock Origi established himself as a top class 4th choice in their front line.
The injury to Alisson in the first game is a blow, but Liverpool should still manage to get through the next 1 – 2 months without him.
Man City are of course strong as ever and overall the best team in Premier League history.
However, we can’t really see too many reasons for how they are going to improve again and add to the 98 points they took last year.
Although, Sterling might very well end up being this year’s top scorer if he gets game time at centre forward.
Champions League Qualification
Tottenham had their league performance subdued by their Champions League run last year.
They are still comfortably the 3rd best team in the league and have made some great signings this year in Ndombele, Lo Celso and Sessegnon.
We expect them to finish 3rd this year.
The 4th place will go to Arsenal who have added more goals with Pepe, a better midfield with Ceballos, an improvement upon Sokratis and Chambers in Luiz, and an interesting rotation option in Tierney.
With a foundation of Lacazette and Aubameyang, they are going to score a lot more goals than United and Chelsea this year.
And that will be the differentiator.
Manchester United will finish 5th this year.
They might have kept Pogba, but they would have been better off selling him and replacing him with a proper team player.
Maguire is good, but he’s not as good as the price suggests due to his lack of pace.
Wan-Bissaka was a great signing which will see them set on RB for the next 10 years.
Chelsea finished 3rd last year.
But with the loss of Hazard they have lot of goals and assists they need to replace.
We’re big fans of Tammy Abraham and Pulisic, but there is still a big hole in output one has to fill just to replicate last season’s points tally.
Their best defender Rudiger is injured and they sold David Luiz.
Essentially they have 3 CBs in their squad with Christensen, Zouma and Tomori, although Azpi could play there too.
Our advice? Bet on Newcastle going down this year.
Replacing Benitez with Bruce and selling their two best strikers and replacing them with a striker who does not score a lot of goals will see them doomed.
Joining them will be Sheffield United as they just have the worst squad in the league.
The final relegation spot will go to Aston Villa.
Although they were the best team in the Championship in the 2nd half of the season last year, they’ve added too many new signings and will suffer the same faith as Fulham trying to integrate them into their team this year.