Wanted to do a very quick analysis for the 3 plays we are on tonight. The plays are below but wanted to talk through why these are all strong leans and hence 1 unit full plays for each.
|Sens/Jets Over 6.0 +110 1u tp 1.1u|
|Vegas/Yotes Over 6.0 -105 1.05u tp 1u|
|Stars/Avs Under 6.0 -110 1.1u tp 1u|
Sens vs Jets Over 6.0 +110
We’ll start with the Senators vs Jets game. The total is set at 6 for a reason. Usually I don’t actually take overs. If you look at my total plays in the past 2 months about 80% of them are unders. There’s a reason for this – All my systems are based on testing under theories. I have yet to test overs extensively, but something happens when no under system is triggers (there are 3 total UNDER systems.)
If no under is triggered this means the game has a very strong lean to an Over. What we do next is go on to check the goalies. In this particular case only 1 goalie is confirmed as starting and I think they SUCK. Hence another strong signal to the over lean.
Another signal is both team’s previous game – Although they scored 6 and 7 goals respectively I’m more interested in how many they conceded and the style of play, of course it was expansive hockey.
Some people say when expansive hockey and games hit 10-11 goals that we should bet the “under” next game as the lines are over-compensating. This is utter BS. Although lines do move crazy sometimes, this is not one of those times. One of the reasons is because there isn’t a big rest between games. Both teams played 2 days ago, that’s almost a back to back and hence when you include game analysis, travel and training, you aren’t going to change how a team plays in 1 full day. As a result the same STYLE of game should occur. Of course that’s not to say that 11 goals will go in again…. But when the line is 6 not 11 this has to become a play.
4 Strong leans all pointing to the OVER, hence a full unit play on the over 6.0 at plus money.
Golden Knights vs Coyotes – Over 6.0 -105
Very similar to the above game we are going with the over 6.0 here. The reasoning is slightly different and more based on systems and theories we have previously based.
Yotes played yesterday and won by more than 2.5 goals (that doesn’t happen much)
Golden Knights defence and goalie SUCK – Easy potential 3-5 goals for Yotes if they come out fired up.
Golden Knights offence is really good and they play the expansive game. I think they will be chasing the game here and have to win 5-3 style game. I still think Yotes will lose this game but it won’t be because of scoring and if they do lose it, I don’t think it will be a 2-1 3-1 style game.
The stats: Golden Knights have a 3.48 goals per game ratio. Yotes are second last with only 2.48 but I think will come out firing after last night’s 5! Defence wise: Yotes are top for goals against with 3.45 so if you wanted instead a good play would be Vegas over 3.5 at plus money (price is +110, good in my opinion but I hate 3.5 lines). Vegas defence/goalie is pretty bad stating a 3.16 goals against per game since the start of the season.
If we add those 4 figures up and divide by 2 we get the “estimated” goals in the game – 3.48 + 2.48 + 3.45 + 3.16 = 12.57 / 2 = 6.285! Slightly over 6.0! You ever thing about how the bookies make their lines 😉
Stars vs Avs – Under 6.0 -110
Our final total is an under. As per the theory initial checks I do for each game this hit 2/3 under signals. When that happens it’s usually a very strong sign that the game is going under 5.5. When the line is set at 6.0 it’s another strong reason to make the play and pull the trigger for a full unit.
Reasoning is quite simple here, 2 good goalies, Avs have struggled to score recently and Stars turning into a more defensively minded team. Mix that with Stars on B2B game data stats and theories and Avs shooting on 23 in their last game and we get a very strong signal for the under 5.5, so the under 6.0 at only -110 becomes a full unit.
Thanks for reading, let me know on Twitter what you think.