The NHL is one of the largest betting markets, albeit smaller the core 3 (NBA, NFL & MLB), this is the sport we’ve had the longest profitability. With daily plays through the majority of the season as well as Stanley Cup Futures, the NHL has been a leader for our sports investment service. Needless to say the NHL (and actually ice hockey tips in general) are incredibly valuable. Currently we’re only offering NHL betting tips and not looking into other leagues such as the KHL or Elite League (in the UK), simply down to the very low limits offered in these markets. Hockey is still considered one of the most difficult sports to create +EV bets long term, although since 2016 we’ve managed to achieve this successfully.
NHL Betting Tips and Predictions
As with all our play selection processes, the baseline is created on systems and betting models created with the sole goal to provide +EV investments. These then sit next to our market movement models to create a selection or pick when a price/odds triggers for a certain event. In the NHL we’ve yet to have a losing month, with the past 3 seasons coming in at; +45u, +33u & currently +54u (as of near the end of the 19-2020 season).
Each NHL play is either on one of two markets; Moneyline and/or Total goals for the event. With a maximum of 2u per play, but 95% of the volume of plays being a singular unit based on the bankroll management we recommend to all premium customers.
Variance In the NHL
With the NHL there are a few things to remember, unlike the NBA or NFL there’s a higher degree of variance. This was tested in a book called The Success Equation – very good book for anyone looking to go into professional sports betting.
It talked about the top sports in relation to skill vs luck and on the bottom end of the scale was ice hockey. Not to say this sport isn’t difficult (we personally believe its the hardest sport to play in the world) but there is a a lot of variance because of how it is played in the NHL vs say the NBA or college basketball.
For example, you could have a hockey team that had 10 shots vs 40 shots and still win. +200 dogs win outright very often through a season, and total goals vary from 1 to 14+ on any given week.
So assuming variance is so high in hockey, the average unit play per game needs to be lower, but the volume of plays stays slightly higher, to reach that magic +50% ROI per season that we aim for.
A group of bets can be seen the same way as an investment. Some will win, other bets will lose but over the course of 100 bets or investments, we will be in a net positive, which can be seen on the results page with large up and down swings, but always coming out on top.
Our NHL Betting Strategies
We have a wide range of strategies we use to profit from the NHL. The core elements involve using data-driven situational match-ups. Such as Back-to-back odds corrections, watching markets move based on information and more traditional handicapping.
All this means is every game is handicapped based on the same process that continues to work for us. The individual elements may become more or less important, such as; players, goalies, referees, travel, injuries, markets, trends, match-ups, situational elements and more, but the core analysis won’t change due to the lack of quality data in the ice hockey markets, versus say the NFL.
For example EXP Goals is a key indicator of a team’s performance, but this isn’t included in the boxscore results. Instead you have “shots” which include “Ovechkin or Crosby in the slot” the same as a non screened shot from the point by a rookie defender. If you translated each of those into an expected goals outcome, you’d get very different numbers and hence a very different outcome.
This is of course one of many examples but one of the easier ones to understand about how mispriced NHL markets can be.
These individual elements are then blended into our system, mixed with the live market movement strategies to determine a specific result and hence a play.
Gut Feeling & Non-Technical Decisions
Occasionally we will have a play that looks good on paper but we do not take.
This isn’t very common but it’s very important to look at the human side of sports betting.
Things such as momentum and quality of goals are something that a machine cannot look at, they can only look at the statistical side of NHL betting and hence the tips offered might not be 100% accurate. This is one of the reasons why solely using trend based betting strategies won’t work long term.
As a result, we do not want to make any mistakes where, if we individually reviewed the plays, we may down or upgrade it from a 1 unit play to a half or vice versa.
In the 2019/20 we did this on around 12 occasions which isn’t much compared to a large season, but it resulted in a positive ROI and hence integrated into all of our plays now.
If you have any questions about Ghost Betting or our NHL betting tips service please feel free to get in touch.
The NHL Play – Betting Results
Everything we do at GBT is 100% transparent, including every single play live on our results page. If you have any questions about these please feel free to get in touch.
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Frequently asked questions
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We provide tips for all major sports, including NHL, MLB, NBA, NFL, UFC, soccer, cricket, rugby union and college sports.
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