NHL is where it all started for me. It was the sport I watched the most growing up and to this day it is the one that I make the most plays on (although recently cricket and rugby have become the most profitable ones) – Needless to say the NHL (and actually ice hockey tips in general) are incredibly valuable.
In this page we dive into massive detail about why we started with the NHL, how we approach our betting processes and how you can get started with our sports handicapping services. If you want to skip the reading just visit our picks page.
What We Do – NHL Betting Tips and Predictions
We build systems that have helped us profit through smart sports betting for close to 3 years. We’ve yet to have a losing quarter to date, with the majority of seasons going over 40 units profit, with only 1 unit maximum per play.
With the NHL there are a few things to remember. The first is that this is a sport played on freckin ICE! So the variance increases. This was tested in a book called The Success Equation – Very good book for anyone looking to go into professional sports betting.
What this talked about was the top sports in relation to skill vs luck and on the bottom end of the scale was hockey, not to say this sport isn’t difficult as I personally believe its the hardest sport to play in the world, but instead this is a sport that has a lot of variance because of how it is played. For example, you could have a team that had 10 shots vs 40 shots and still win. So assuming variance is so high, the average unit play per game needs to be lower, but the volume of plays slightly higher! That’s all that means.
We have a wide range of strategies we use to profit from the NHL. But our core NHL betting tips principles are built out using data and statistical likelihood of a specific event within the sport. This is essentially what we do across all sports at Ghost Betting Tips, which is to use data-driven strategies to generate a positive return on investment for our clients.
This means we analyse what has happened in the past based on the data and then review every individual aspect that affects the result of a game and then determine which of these are the strongest. This can be everything from players, goalies, referees, all the way through to things that I do not know anyone looks into – such as ice quality, travel distance etc to build out the best NHL bets for clients and ensure no mistakes are made in the selection process.
These individual elements are then places into our software to determine the likelihood of a specific result. But this is not where we stop. We then analyse this against the price offered by major sportsbooks, looking into how the lines are moving, which direction and generally using traditional sports betting methodologies to determine the quality of a play. This is of course then related back to the previous data which goes into our final stage checklist.
Gut feeling & non-technical decisions – Occasionally we will have a play that looks good on paper but we do not take, this isn’t very common but it’s very important to look at the human side of sports betting. Things such as momentum and quality of goals are something that a machine cannot look at, they can only look at the statistical side of NHL betting and hence the tips offered might not be 100% accurate. As a result, we do not want to make any mistakes where if we individually reviewed the plays we may down or upgrade it from a 1 unit play to a half or vice versa. In the 2017/18 we did this on around 20 occasions which isn’t much compared to a large season, but it resulted in a positive ROI and hence this is integrated into all of our plays now.
Back Testing The NHL
Over the past 3 years, I’ve back-tested dozens of theories and come up with multiple profitable theories that have earned us close to 40 units a season with the NHL!
In this time we’re learnt alot about trend analysis and how it impacts betting in general. Hockey betting is one of the most difficult to analyse and predict on an ongoing basis, as we discuss on this page and throughout our site. This is mainly due to the role variance “luck” plays in the bets outcome.
To start, the sports itself is played on ice, so of course the platform or “field of play” adds variance in an of itself. There’s also the note of live rolling “substitutions” – these of course are the teams lines which consist of 3 forward and 2 defence-men. As these subs are constantly rolling, we have another element of luck involved, simple miscommunications are costly leading to goals, penalties or your weaker players having higher time on ice (which as a general performance indicator or bet confidence metric is not a good thing).
But this also gives us an opportunity becuase the bookies are also very confused when it comes to the NHL and hockey betting in an of itself. Primarily due to hockey sportsbooks not investing a lot of resources into the creation of sharp lines. Pinnacle for example is seen as a very sharp sportsbook but even they have stated the NHL is one of the more difficult sports to predict due to the higher variance.
This is why we actually started with our NHL tips service as the first to concur. But due to the higher variance, it is essential you shop for the best odds available in the marketplace and ensure you have great bankroll management, otherwise you will seriously struggle to earn a profit through NHL hockey betting.
If you want to get some extremely profitable and FREE NHL betting tips then sign up to the free plays below and you can see how good we really are.
The Goal – Ice Hockey Betting Tips GUARANTEED
In 2018 and moving forward I’m developing a tool to automatically back-test data integrating machine learning & statistical analysis. This tool is going to be a long time in the making but once developed will increase the units profited each season from around 40 to potentially 60-70 units. It will also increase the validity and confidence of the theories already created and allow us to increase our unit sizing in the process.
The goal for Ghost Betting is to build a premium guaranteed sports betting service that is not simply making plays on “gut feel” but more of a statistical analysis approach, reducing variance as much as possible and profiting 100% ROI per season, even with correct bankroll management.
This is a very long project as I’ve discussed on the blog previously and NHL is just the start, Ice hockey is the toughest sport to crack and once this is done and we can guarantee 50+ units profit per season we will be integrating the same systems, tools & software to back-test theories in other sports & leagues, starting with the MLB & Soccer.
If you have any questions about Ghost Betting or our NHL betting tips service please feel free to get in touch. We also don’t discriminate, I’m based in the United Kingdom, the majority of our clients are actually based in Finland, Sweden, Norway and The United States. Sign up and let’s all profit together!