This article will show how to create a profitable NHL betting system, meaning that it is suitable for those with an advanced understanding of sports betting.
If you are new to NHL betting, read this article first. It covers all the basics, such as explaining the different ways to bet on the NHL and how to read the odds.
Once you’re ready to start making NHL bets, come back to this article. It’s vital you understand why you are making a play, as opposed to what you are betting on.
For those of you that are ready to continue, here is how to build profitable NHL betting strategies.
Firstly, all your betting strategies must be created in line with a bankroll management plan. Once you deposit into your account, you should never have to add more to it.
Consistent and profitable NHL bettors never invest more than 1-2% of their bankroll per wager.
Bankroll management is what separates the casual bettors from serious NHL sports investors. Often those that like to place a bet every now and again will disregard the idea of a bankroll, deposit $x there and then and use it all on a single wager.
If that bet loses, the process repeats until they can’t afford to make any more bets.
Increase Bet Size
Once your bankroll starts to grow, your bet sizes need to scale up with it. Here’s an example.
Assume that you deposit $10,000 into your betting account. At the start, you would invest $100 per play.
After a month, your bankroll is now sitting at $11,000. The next step is to increase your bet size to $110. This is still 1% of your bankroll but allows you to make bigger bets, meaning bigger profits, but still managed correctly.
Into the next month and your bankroll sits at $12,100. Your bet size can now increase to $121 per bet. Again, this is still only 1% of your bankroll but notice how after only two months, you are able to stake $20 more per bet than when you first started.
This is why bankroll management and progressively increasing bet sizes is so important.
Read this article to see how you can make a 200% ROI based on this bankroll managing method.
The next step to building a NHL betting strategy is by looking to find value. You need to understand the relationship between the chance of a team winning and the betting odds available.
It doesn’t matter if the bet wins or loses. If the odds are way higher than they should be, there is great value in that bet.
For example, the Dallas Stars were recently available at around +160 against the high-flying Preds:
There is also the scenario when the underdog upsets the odds and beats the heavy favorite. Not many people would have thought to bet on the underdog, except that experienced sports bettors will have.
For example, the LA Kings recently beat the Lightning. Here are the historical odds from Oddsportal:
Making value bets, no matter how uncomfortable you may feel about betting on improbabilities, is the key to long-term success in sports betting.
Profitable NHL betting systems are based on statistics. More data is recorded in sports matches than ever before which leads to more accurate and reliable betting systems.
However, the key is knowing what statistics are important and which ones to ignore. Remember, while data is great for sports bettors, sportsbooks also have access to the same information.
The reason why most NHL bettors lose in the long run is that cannot use this information correctly. If you want to become a successful sports bettor, avoid the things that the rest are doing.
Collect as much data as possible, store it in a spreadsheet and analyse any trends you find to create unique theories. The more unique, the better as you will found an edge over the sportsbooks AND big bettors that influence the betting lines.
Think of trend analysis as an equation:
if x = this and y = that, then z happens.
Never worry about how much data you collect as there’s no such thing as too much information when it comes to sports betting.
Once you have developed a number of betting strategies, you should then back-test them to see if you are on to something.
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Back-testing is developing a system and testing it against the results of past matches. If your system shows that it can beat results from previous seasons, it may have a good chance of working.
However, just because it looks like it would have worked in previous seasons doesn’t guarantee it’ll work now. Sportsbooks are always updating their own strategies to update their betting lines so something that may have profited in the past won’t make as much money now.
Another thing to be wary of when back-testing is how far back you go. You need to backtest against at least two or three seasons before a connection can be made.
But don’t go too far back either. The game itself has evolved from even the 2000s so it’s pointless testing an NHL strategy in this period.
Back-testing is just another step in creating a betting system. It will only tell you if your system has promise, not that it will be profitable.
We have done a whole separate article on back-testing sports betting strategies. Click here to read more.
Evaluating A Betting System
The final step in creating a profitable betting system is evaluating it.
Every successful betting system made, be it in the NHL, NFL, NBA, MLB or another sport for that matter, has gone through constant evaluation and correction.
Some systems may only work for certain periods of the season. Some never actually work!
Long-term success from sports betting can only be achieved by testing new ideas and improving existing strategies.
Ghost Betting Tips
With this in mind, it’s extremely important to change one variable at a time. This is because if you alter more than one and you test the theory, you may never be sure what caused a change in result.
And that’s it. Following these rules will ensure that you can create long-term and profitable NHL betting strategies.
Let’s now dive a little deeper into some potential NHL betting strategies.
Importance Of NHL Travel
If you have ever played ice hockey, you’ll know how physically demanding just a single game is. The constant movement is enough without the constant battles with your opponents. Now, imagine playing 2-4 games a week, for the next 6 months or so. It’s a lot of work!
This is why the NHL travel schedule is important. If a team is on a 5-game road trip, travelling from city to city after being battered and bruised every night, they are unlikely to have as much time to recover as their opponents that are in the middle of a home streak.
So, the strategy here is rather straightforward: look for teams that have longer distances to travel for their next away game. If there is value, take the bet against them.
However, this isn’t always a slum dunk. Just because teams, on paper at least, may seem like they are more fatigued than their opponents doesn’t guarantee them a loss.
This follows on nicely from the NHL travel metric as it follows the same logic; players are going to be more tired after playing the night before due to the lack of recovery time.
The strategy here is to bet against teams that have back-to-back schedules. Combine this with how far the back-to-back team has to travel and you are likely onto a winner.
Sometimes teams have to play 4 games within 6 days so it makes sense to continue betting against the teams on the grueling schedule.
Having said that, we need to remember value.
While in theory, it’s a profitable strategy, the bookmakers will also be aware of this and will adjust their odds accordingly. And after all, just because the fixtures aren’t in the favor doesn’t mean they are going to lose.
Each NHL team has 6 players on the ice: the goalie, defensemen, wingers and a center. They will have a starting lineup, where the best players take the ice first, before being rotated during the match by substitutes.
Knowing how an NHL team is going to line up against their opponents is important for betting on ice hockey. For example, if you know that the home team has a strong right wing to start and on the bench, while the away side struggles on that side in defense, it seems likely that they will score.
You could also pay particular attention to a team’s goalie. This is the most important position on the entire team. If he goes down injured and the backup hasn’t played many minutes all season, there are a few things to note here.
Firstly, there’s the fact that he hasn’t played, leading the opponents to potentially take more shots to test him out and conceding more goals.
There could also be a psychological impact on outfield players. They may not feel as confident in the backup and make decisions they may not usually make.
So, in terms of an ice hockey betting strategy, you would then bet against the team with an injured goalie – assuming there is value in it of course!
By now you’ll understand how to build profitable NHL betting systems. Do your research, back-test your theories and you’ll be well on your way.
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