This article will show how to create a profitable NHL betting system, meaning that it is suitable for those with an advanced understanding of sports betting.
If you are new to NHL betting, read this article first. It covers all the basics such explaining the different ways to bet on the NHL and how to read the odds.
Once you’re ready to start making NHL bets, come back to this article. It’s vital you understand why you are making a play, as opposed to what you are betting on.
For those of you that are ready to continue, here is how to build profitable NHL betting strategies.
Firstly, all your betting strategies must be created in line with your bankroll. Once you deposit into your account, you should never have to add more to it.
Consistent and profitable NHL bettors never invest more than 1-2% of their bankroll per wager. For example, a bankroll of $10,000 would make between $100 and $200 bets.
Bankroll management is what separates the casual bettors from serious NHL sports investors. Often those that like to place a bet every now and again will disregard the idea of a bankroll, deposit $x there and then and use it all on a single wager.
If that bet loses, the process repeats until they can’t afford to make any more bets.
Do not do this. Ensure that you have money set aside specifically for NHL betting. Only invest between 1-2% of it per bet and you will never need to worry about depositing again.
Increase Bet Size
Once your bankroll starts to grow, your bet sizes need to scale up with it. Here’s an example.
Assume that you deposit $10,000 into your betting account. At the start, you would invest $100 per play.
After a month, your bankroll is now sitting at $11,000. The next step is to increase your bet size to $110. This is still 1% of your bankroll but allows you to make bigger bets, meaning bigger profits, but still managed correctly.
Into month 2 and your bankroll sits at $12,100. Your bet size can now increase to $121 per bet. Again, this is still only 1% of your bankroll but notice how after only two months, you are able to stake $20 more per bet than when you first started.
This is why bankroll management and progressively increasing bet sizes is so important.
Read this article to see how you can make a 200% ROI based on this bankroll managing method.
The next step to building a NHL betting strategy is by looking to find value. You need to understand the relationship between the chance of a team winning and the betting odds available.
It doesn’t matter if the bet wins or loses. If the odds are way higher than they should be, there is great value in that bet.
Think of when the underdog upsets the odds and beats the heavy
Making value bets, matter how uncomfortable you may feel about betting on improbabilities, is the key to long-term success in sports betting.
Profitable NHL betting systems are based on statistics. More data is recorded in sports matches than ever before which leads to more accurate and reliable betting systems.
However, the key is knowing what statistics are important and which ones to ignore. Remember, while data is great for sports bettors, sportsbooks also have access to the same information.
The reason why most NHL bettors lose in the long run is that cannot use this information correctly. If you want to become a successful sports bettor, avoid the things that the rest are doing.
Collect as much data as possible, store it in a spreadsheet and analyse any trends you find to create unique theories. The more unique, the better as you will found an edge over the sportsbooks AND big bettors that influence the betting lines.
Think of trend analysis as an equation:
if x = this and y = that, then z happens.
Never worry about how much data you collect as there’s no such thing as too much information when it comes to sports betting.
Once you have developed a number of betting strategies, you should then backtest them to see if you are on to something.
Backtesting is developing a system and testing it against the results of past matches. If your system shows that it can beat results from previous seasons, it may have a good chance of working.
However, just because it looks like it would have worked in previous seasons doesn’t guarantee it’ll work now. Sportsbooks are always updating their own strategies to update their betting lines so something that may have profited in the past won’t make as much money now.
Another thing to be wary of when backtesting is how far back you go. You need to backtest against at least two or three seasons before a connection can be made.
But don’t go too far back either. The game itself has evolved from even the 2000s so it’s pointless testing an NHL strategy in this period.
Backtesting is just another step in creating a betting system. It will only tell you if your system has promise, not that it will be profitable.
Evaluating A Betting System
The final step in creating a profitable betting system is evaluating it.
Every successful betting system made, be it in the NHL, NFL, NBA, MLB or another sport for that matter, has gone through constant evaluation and correction.
Some systems only work for certain periods of the season. Some never actually work!
Long-term success from sports betting can only be achieved is by testing new ideas and improving existing strategies.
With this in mind, it’s extremely important to change one variable at a time. This is because if you alter more than one and you test the theory, you may never be sure what caused a change in result.
And that’s it. Following these rules will ensure that you can create long-term and profitable NHL betting strategies.
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