So this is an interesting one today. Something that I kind of initially missed on my radar but may work out to be incredibly profitable.
If you follow me on Twitter you know that I only bet 1 unit per play. Never with odds above -170. Meaning I will never risk more than 1.7u on any one specific play (in the NHL). Despite unofficially breaking my own rule for the #50unitrun challenge I am not and it’s going pretty well.
Anyone, one thing I keep an eye on alot is cricket betting.
I’ve had cricket betting cracked for years but there’s just not many plays to make any really good money on. Most teams are to closely matched or the prices are just very poor (-400 for favourites etc).
Cutting to the chase.
When I see something incredible, I go into max value mode because it is a max investment and not a max gamble. I’ve made 2 of these in the past 12 months so these are not very common occurrences. I say max investment because with bets these size (and with odds this big) we actually monitor this on an hourly basis. Of course investments can fail but generally we never lose all of our stake (cashing out) for either massive profit or a small loss.
I’ve yet to lose more than 50% of a max bet.
The Set Up
Before getting into the bet I like to talk about the set-up as it helps clear and review in my own mind as well as explain to everyone why we are betting on what we are betting on.
Cricket 5 day test matches – The play in question is a 5 day test match played in South Africa (Wanderers Cricket Stadium in Johannesburg).
Day 1 has finished. The score is screenshot below.
Quite a fast paced game.
Why The Price Is So High?
- The Pitch – The pitch in Joburg is very difficult and generally relates to low scoring and fast games (that’s bad) meaning the game will be over (either-way) in a few days.
- Under-estimation of weather – Bookies do not look into weather too much as a factor to affect the result of a game. For the most part this is usually the case, but when it comes to test match cricket it’s actually insanely important.
The weather varies across a number of sites with Friday 26th being the important day (as well as us needing a slow day tomorrow) – If we can get a day tomorrow where South Africa just complete their innings (so by the end of day 2 both teams are all out, then we will have a chance.)
The Decision & The Bet
Although the pitch does scare me the most with the weather stats and massive price it simply makes it a bet of 3 UNITS (not 10 or 20 as I have done previously, but doubt the bookies would take a 10u bet anyway at this price.)
- Bet: 3 units @ +1,200 — Match Result: DRAW.
I would not recommend risking more on this play. Good luck if you tail and stay updated with the strategy moving forward.
As mentioned with these sized bets we aren’t looking to just lay it and walk away. I will be keeping a close eye on a number of things with this game, most notably the weather reports and draw price.
Remember this is called betting for a reason, if it loses don’t come crying to me. Take the up with the down. You have a coin flip for 12X your money. We take this everyday of the week.
Good luck all.