So a quick update to our bet 2 weeks ago for Kane Williamson to be the top batsman in the IPL 2018. For anyone who doesn’t know anything about cricket, this post is for you. At GBT one of our major profitable sports is cricket and we can usually get around 50 units a year profit through this, so understanding the basics is going to be very profitable for you. Today I’m going to talk about what the current bet is, what the IPL is quickly and a little bit about how we’re going to play this bet out for the remainder of the competition as it’s a big one. So let’s get to it.
What’s the IPL – Indian Premier League
The IPL is a 2 month long competition that happens once a year in India. It’s a T20 cricket tournament where between 8-10 teams (franchises) play each other twice over a regular season. There’s big money in this competition and as a result the best players in the world come to compete and it’s awesome if you are into your cricket, if you’re not don’t worry…. Because it’s awesome in a different way, in the way we can make a boatload of money.
I’m not going to expand on the competition any further as I’ve got a lot to run through in this post and don’t want this to be a 1,000+ word post.
The Bet & The Bet Type
The largest bet I made on the IPL this season was for the top batsman of the entire competition, including the playoffs (this is important for a number of reasons). This simply means whoever scores the most individual runs wins the bet. There’s hundreds of players but realistically only about 50-70 candidates each season with favourites coming in around 8/1 and good prices across the board at the start of the competition. As things go on we tend to get lower prices as you would expect!
The bet that was made was Kane Williamson – A classy New Zealand batsman to score the most runs and hence win the bet. We got the incredible price of 25/1 and as I’ll expand on later, he’s now down to only 2/1 but there’s still a long way to go.
Analysing The Play’s Current Situation
The reason I started writing this post today was to analyse the current situation of the bet and what specific elements to keep an eye on or potentially hedge. So currently the odds are below and the leader-board for the actual runs are also below.
The odds are below (from B365)
As you can see the odds align quite closely with some notable exceptions. What I’m going to explain today is how we play these large-win potentials out, this is where knowing the sports and players and even format of the event in extreme detail is really useful, which luckily I do for the IPL and cricket in general.
So, breaking down from the top, there’s a few people on the odds list that we don’t need to worry about, below is who these are and why they have less than a 1% chance of winning (barring any black swan events they simply won’t win.)
- MS Dhoni — Amazing player but simply bats too far down the order to make up the difference in runs.
- SV Samson — His team won’t qualify for the playoffs and there’s too much of a gap to make up the difference.
Below are a few selections that have a very low (approximately 5%) chance of winning, these are the individuals that I wouldn’t even consider hedging a bet with, but ones that I’m not fully writing off yet.
- AB De Villers – Again a superstar player but his team won’t qualify for the playoffs (unless a huge amount of plays including elements outside of their control go their way) – RCB the team he plays for still has 4 games left so although it’s unlikely he’ll catch up, it’s not impossible based on the style of player he is.
- Virat Kohli – Exactly the same reason as above, he also plays for RCB and if RCB could qualify would be a real condetender for top scorer but making up over 120 runs difference and not having any additional games (the playoffs) to do this, is very very unlikely.
- Chris Gayle – Another king of T20 cricket, is probably one of the top 3 players of T20 cricket of all time. The reason why I’m not putting him in the less than 1% chance of winning even though he’s 66/1 to win now is two fold – 1.) The team has a good chance of qualifying for the playoffs, I believe they are in 3rd currently and the top 4 teams qualify for the playoffs, 2.) He has the potential to score 100+ in any game he plays. Would I bet on it? No way, but is it more than 1% possible – Yes and has been done before, but he is 210 runs off the lead so it’s just something that’s not quite out of question yet.
- Shane Watson – Great player and his team should qualify for the playoffs to get the extra batting time, but he’s just too far behind the lead now (200 runs off), that’s a lot of ground to make up that I don’t think he can.
Although I’m not writing off these 4 players above, within a couple more games of each we can realistically do so which is why I monitor these larger plays on a daily/per game basis as things can change very quickly.
The home-straight plays
These are the top 5 competitors left and realistically they are all a threat but 2 of these more than others. I’ll cover the two I’m not as worried about first:
- RR Pant – He’s currently the leading run-scorer…. So should be favourite right? But is only coming in at 3.5/1, why is this? Well it’s simple, he bats at #4 for Dehli, Dehli are the only team that mathematically cannot qualify for the playoffs, meaning they only have 3 games left regardless of results. After this he’ll be out of the running and unless he’s 100+ runs ahead (which is possible but unlikely) he cannot win. We’ll be tracking his next 3 names very closely but unless he gets another 150+ runs from these 3 games which is not impossible but unlikely, he’ll be out of the running and I’m not looking to hedge with Pant unless he does achieve this.
- SA Yadav – An interesting one and someone I think will finish with 550+ runs but probably come 2nd or 3rd in the standings. He plays for Mumbai who have a good chance of reaching the playoffs (currently in 4th) but also have played 11 out of their 14 regular season games – Meaning he could only have potential 3 left and if Mumbai do not qualify, those are ONLY 3 games, to make up a 90 run difference and then get another 150+ is very unlikely. So in short: If Mumbai DON’T Qualify he’ll be out of the running, if they do then he potentially becomes a hedge option along with Pant.
But in an ideal situation Pant scores less than 50 runs in his next 3 games and Mumbai Indians don’t qualify, those results are both quite likely which is great and would leave us with potentially a 3 horse race below which makes hedging very easy if we need to.
Analysing the final 2 candidates
- A Rayudu – I’m surprised Rayudu is 8/1 here, I’d personally shorten this to about 5/1 if I were a sportsbook. The reasoning being Chennai (the team he plays for) has pretty much already qualified. They are 2nd in the league and as long as they win 2 of 4 games they are guaranteed to qualify (if they even win 1 out of 4 they would likely still qualify too.) – Chennai have also only played 10 games (not 11 like most other teams), so if Rayudu get’s a good score tomorrow he’ll be very much in the mix again. The good part is he’s still 100 runs off of the lead so even scoring 80 wouldn’t be the end of the world, although he’d probably go to 2/1 if he did score 80+ in his game tomorrow.
- L Rahul – This is the player I’m most concerned about. He’s 3/1, third in the overall runs list and only 22 runs from Kane Williamson. He also has a “game in hand” as his team (Kings 11) have only played 10 games (as opposed to 11 like most other teams.) He also opens the batting for the team meaning he doesn’t have to wait for other players to get out before coming in. He’s the main thread at the moment and as Kings 11 are in third position and likely to qualify for the playoffs, if he scores 30+ in his next game he’ll likely become the favourite.
He’s still the favourite because he’s 30 runs from the lead and 20 runs ahead of 3rd place. His team sits top, meaning they are essentially guaranteed to qualify after today and will AT LEAST play 2 more games (after the regular season is finished) – The IPL playoffs have an interesting post-season structure, screenshot below.So to explain this weird set-up, if you finish 1st or 2nd, you’ll go into the “qualifier 1” – Regardless of whether you win or lose you’ll play another game. If you win then you advance to the final and of course your second post season game is the final. If you lose then you go to the qualifier 2 and this is your second game, and the great news is if you win this you go to the final, so by finishing 1st or 2nd a team can potentially play 3 post season games. This is great for someone who is trying to score the most runs as they’ll have essentially twice or three times the chances and we love increase our odds here.
This is why for the time-being we won’t be making any hedge plays, the 3 core games we’ll be tracking very closely in the next week are:
- CSK vs RR – Tomorrow – We want to see Rayudu score very few runs.
- Kings 11 vs KKR – Saturday – We want to see Rahul score no runs (and ideally Kings 11 to lose).
- CSK vs SRH – Sunday – Rayudu to score very few and Kane Williamson to obviously score as many as possible.
- MI vs RR – Sunday – Yadav to score very few and Mumbai to lose.
If those 4 events run out as we want above, we will likely not have to hedge anything and can chill with Kane Williamson becoming odds-on to win the bet and net us 12.5 units (only half a unit bet).
Hope everyone is well and winning, message me on Twitter if you have any questions and remember to SUBSCRIBE and Follow me on twitter if you do not do so already.
P.S. This went way over 1,000 words but think it’s a good write-up, let me know!