GHOST BETTING TIPS

In-Play Betting: How To Find Value

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Inplay betting allows you to make a play even when you don’t have a lean.

The key to success is picking your spots at the right time.

With inplay betting odds always changing, it’s important to know when to place the bet and maximize value.

So how do you get the most out of inplay betting?

Read on to find out.

Inplay Betting Opportunities

When you create the right betting strategy, you can make money without having a positive win/loss record.

Online sportsbooks give you the chance to make all kinds of inplay bets, from the game winner all the way to an individual player’s statistics.

There can be a lot of value in these markets if you time things right.

In fact, there may be enough value that inplay betting may be worth including in your overall strategy. 

Here are a few scenarios where you can take advantage of inplay betting. 

Favorites Losing Early On The Moneyline

Teams down early

Here’s the issue when betting on the moneyline:

Value isn’t usually available when betting favorites.

Things get a little dicey when you must risk a large chunk of money compared to the potential gain.

Inplay betting may be the answer to this problem, particularly when they go down early on in the match.

The odds will shift in your favor in this situation.

Take betting on the NFL for example.

If the -250 favorite conceded a touchdown on the first drive, the odds may shift to something like -150.

This means you can still take the favorite without risking too much money.

Plus, there’s still over three-quarters of time left for them to turn the game around.

Teams can come back

It can be mentally tough to bet on a team that’s already losing to go on and win, but if the quality between the two teams is large enough, it’s still a safe bet.

That said, err on the side of caution with moneyline inplay betting on big underdogs that take an early lead.

Even if betting a +200 line can be risky if there’s a good chance the favorite will come back and win. 

Understanding The Situation For Spreads 

This mainly applies to football and basketball ie high-scoring sports.

Most sportsbooks have lines on the spread throughout the game.

Here’s an example.

Let’s say in an NFL game that a team is losing by like 6 or 8 points and is entering their final drive.

Understanding The Situation For Spreads

Now, the sportsbooks may set spread of +5.5 or +7.5 points respectively for the losing team, so they’ll cover the spread if they score.

But they can also cover the spread by scoring a field goal.

In reality, the team will never just take the field goal opportunity and accept a 3-point loss.

They’ll only consider a touchdown to win the game.

Here’s another example.

Let’s say another NFL team is down by 10 points with just a few minutes to go in the fourth quarter.

Sportsbooks may set the spread at +9.5 when the losing team gets the ball back.

This means they’ll cover the spread even with a field-goal (assuming they don’t turn the ball over of course.)

Here, the losing team must take the field goal and there’s a good chance the winning team will happily concede the field goal.

So, with these examples in mind, here’s the bottom line:

Teams will adjust their strategies depending on if they can win or tie; they don’t care about covering the spread.

Player Stats Prop Bets

Sportsbooks give you the chance to bet on player stats before a game starts.

For example, you may get an NBA player prop on whether they score over/under 25.5 points at -110.

These odds aren’t always in your favor.

As a sports investor, you should always be looking to find value bets.

Sticking with the NBA example, let’s say the player has a bad first quarter and only scores five points.

If you still feel they’ll come good, you may be able to get plus-money on the same bet.

Just note that coaches will do all they can to keep the opponent’s best players at arm’s length.

Teams make adjustments throughout the game.

Don’t be fooled that a quick start means that the hot form will continue.  

Game Winners

There’s nothing more satisfying than a last-second game winner.

It’s what sports fans live for.

Remember this:

It can also be a goldmine for long-term winning professional sports bettors.

Betting on game winners seems risky on the face of it, but there can be a lot of value if you can get it at the right number.

Betting on the winner requires individual players coming up big in the crucial moments so choose this player wisely.

The under-five-minute moneyline in basketball is a great example. 

There can be a lot of value betting on a losing team to come back and win in a game where the lead is changing back and forth.

And again, the final drive in the NFL can be great for betting on game winners.

When the losing team is down by a few points and there’s only a couple of minutes left, the game winning drive is always in play, whether it’s the defense playing it safe, some major pass interference or a quarterback that always shows up in the clutch.

Now, while the odds depend on the size of the deficit, you should pad your bankroll for moneylines of +250 and above.

Just make sure that the quarterback is good enough to lead the fightback.

Finally, the bottom-of-the-ninth play in the MLB is another potential inplay value bet opportunity.

If a team is down by one run on their last bat, the moneyline could be set as high as +400.

In other words, you only need to win this bet one out of four times to make a profit.

Final Words

When you start inplay betting for value, don’t get too worried about your overall win record.

Focus on your profit/loss instead.

Value betting is tough but sportsbooks rely on people betting on the “easier” plays.

Anyone that enjoys opportunities to win big, inplay betting provides a good platform to choose your spot and reap the rewards.

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