Hey All, as mentioned in the first post, we’ll be doing weekly reviews. Again the overview this week is promising. Also, I might drop this down to only 2 per month rather than one a week and start to integrate a video with these now.
Breaking Down The Weekly Results;
- MLB: Noneeeee.
- NFL: +0.78u – A good NFL Sunday but then lost a couple on the 49ers game.
- NHL: +0.4u – Some close wins and losses but still looking strong.
- NBA: +8.55u – NBA is warming up very nicely (with a 4-0 sweep yesterday helping remove some of the NCAAF loses).
- Cricket: None.
- NCAAF: -8u – Disappointing plays esp on the totals.
- Total for week: +2.2units.
5 Plays total. Going 3-2 for +0.8u. A relatively easy +0.8 but nothing major here.
+10.5 units since the start of November (not just the past 7 days). Very happy with the progress of this as this could have easily been +15 units. To have +10.5 in the bank and feel like the variance went against you is a good place to be!
+4.26 units since 1st November. One really bad losing day in there as well of about 2.5 units. Other than that, this again is very smooth with wins being in the 15-20 point range and losses being close. Can’t say we’ve had any good or bad variance in the NBA yet either (which is always nice).
The beast. So far this month -4,9 units, although up almost 30 on the season now. A bit of regression last week but a good recovery yesterday for +3.7u. Very confident in this sport and should be relatively straight forward for the rest of the season now.
The opposite of relatively straight forward so far… Honestly, as I’m always going to be transparent in these weekly analysis reports, the start of this season has been tough but the sample size is still very small. The current YTD is: -3.6u (6-12). Which is not far off where we started for the NCAAF. We’ll see how this plays out further in the coming weeks.
First Week of November Analysis
So far, November has been great aside from 1 key element which is College basketball. This has sucked so far and we’ll likely be keeping these at halves for the foreseeable future.
Interestingly, NHL has been really strong but the larger plays have been losing, so although going 65%+ in the first week we’re only up a couple of units. Again this is great but it’s still frustrating to be up with a minute left and lose in OT. But that’s part of the game!
As a side-note there’s a good mini lesson here that most people in the industry don’t talk about that much: BAD BEATS.
People say you remember your bad beats more than lucky wins, which is true, that’s just psychology and human nature. But in terms of frequency, if you are sharp, you will have more bad beats than lucky wins, simply because if you are a sharp, you’ll be taking the “correct” side. As a result, for that side to lose, you’ll have to have some bad luck.
This year so far we’ve had some tough losses, even this week in the NCAAF (TCU game, Northwestern….. Just no words for that one). But this betting game involves mindset and mental elements as well as a skilled endeavour to find high EV plays. If you have one but not the other then you’ll go broke anyway.
- NFL – We’ve been nailing this recently but did start very slow, so over the next 3-4 weeks we’ll likely see where we actually sit in regards to this.
- NHL – This is a nice long season and we’re doing very well from a win percentage rate so far, so this is something I’m confident about long term.
- NCAAF – One of the more crazy streak based betting we’ve had. Current YTD: +22 units.
- NCCAB – Very slow start, but college football had this and look how that turned out.
- NBA – Starting to warm up now.
So, ensuring you are using correct bankroll management over the next 6 months, you should see a great increase in this bankroll. As always remember to always gamble responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
If you have any questions or comments or would like us to outline any additional details or thoughts in these weekly updates in the future, please let me know on Twitter.
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