Hey All, as mentioned in the first post, we’ll be doing weekly reviews. This one was good although college football had it’s first bad day (which was to be expected!)
Breaking Down The Weekly Results;
- MLB: +1.27u and season finished… The grind is complete.
- NFL: +0.78u – A good NFL Sunday but then lost a couple on the 49ers game.
- NHL: +0.4u – Some close wins and losses but still looking strong.
- NBA: +8.55u – NBA is warming up very nicely (with a 4-0 sweep yesterday helping remove some of the NCAAF loses).
- Cricket: None.
- NCAAF: -8u – Disappointing plays esp on the totals.
- Total for week: +2.2units.
Month End Review: October
October full plays and results are on the homepage now, feel free to look through all of these plays, sizing etc.
Mistakes Made This Week – Opening Up.
As you can probably imagine with a -8u day there were a couple of mistakes. But thankfully there was nothing dramatic aside from potential sizing issues. Here’s a couple that could have been improved.
1.) Correlated Fuckery – Pretty straight forward here and something I am trying to do less of. But taking totals and spreads in games that shouldn’t be correlated in that way. 49ers and Under for example was one mistake that was clear looking back, amongst a few in the NCAAF.
2.) NCAAF half unit plays – These have (weirdly) been killing us. Officially analysed as 55% plays, they have been hitting under 40%. On the 2nd November these went 1-4 for -2.25u. Not the only thing that went wrong on the Saturday but definitely a part of it.
3.) Variance – I hate using that term as an excuse but it’s not an excuse in this case. Randomness is common in sports and when we win +11 units in one day we get good luck, when we lose 8 units then we got less lucky. For our full unit plays (or higher) went; 2-6, including a 2 point loss, 1 point loss and 2 x 8 point losses. Although a loss is a loss, it’s promising these were close.
Thoughts on sports;
- NFL – We’ve been nailing this recently but did start very slow, so over the next 3-4 weeks we’ll likely see where we actually sit in regards to this.
- NHL – One of our most confident sports, should be on track to hit +50 units this season. Current YTD: +7.2 units.
- NCAAF – One of the more crazy streak based betting we’ve had. Current YTD: +22 units.
- NCCAB – Coming soon, very excited.
- NBA – Current YTD +5.5 units. Nothing crazy yet but good recovery after a slow start
So ensuring you are using correct bankroll management over the next 6 months should ensure you see a great increase in this bankroll. As always remember to always gamble responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you have any questions or comments or would like us to outline any additional details or thoughts in these weekly updates in the future, please let me know on Twitter. If you’d like to join premium, sign up here. Our goal is to build the best sports handicapping service in the world and also a POSITIVE, growth mindset based community – If that sounds like you then come join us on the journey.
Questions & Thoughts Welcome
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